BSI President Speaks on the Role of Renewables in Canada’s Energy Future

Boston Strategies International’s President Mr. David Jacoby spoke on the Comparative Economics of Combined Cycle, Solar, Wind, Hydro, and Geothermal Power at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business (HSB) in Calgary, Alberta, Canada on October 19, 2017.

Renewable energy transformation is fashionable everywhere, but in most geographies, combined cycle power plants fueled by coal and natural gas will continue to dominate for a long time. Solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal fired plants will compete for their shares of power generation, as coal and even oil recede and biomass fails to reach economic scale.

In the image (Left to Right): Dr. Jaydeep Balakrishnan (Professor, Operations and Supply Chain Management), Mr. David Jacoby (President, Boston Strategies International), and Ms. Bea Ewanchuk, Associate Director-HSB Development

The EU has issued clean energy mandates, Asia has established leadership in low-cost supply of equipment, and Latin America is following the guidance of the Paris accord. Nearly everybody agrees that green is a desirable direction, and solar and onshore wind have lower capital costs than conventional power generation plants, but gas-fired combined cycle plants can in many cases deliver a lower Levelized Cost of Electricity and generate more jobs than solar and wind. The battle for lowest cost production has yet to be played out. Fossil fueled power costs can be driven lower still through smart midstream technology such as UAVs, Radar/LIDAR, Infrared Imaging, and Smart Pigging. The political and economic battle for the best energy sources will ultimately also need to consider economic impact and energy independence.

 

This keynote speech provided a perspective as to the comparative economics of combined cycle, solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power generation alternatives, and put the comparison into Canadian perspective, using actual project examples and case studies.

Click on the image for an executive summary of the INECC analysis.

 

To access full 43 page slide deck Combined Cycle, Solar, Wind, Hydro, and Geothermal Power featuring 25 graphs and tables, 9 descriptive figures and diagrams, and full text analysis, click on the link below.

Bahrain’s LNG Terminal Project: How an Independent Master Supply Chain Plan May Have Saved 29 Months and $138 million

b2ap3_thumbnail_Fast-Track-to-Funding-shutterstock_164841665Bahrain’s National Oil and Gas Authority (NOGA)’s LNG import terminal project seems to be on path for a 7-yearcycle: NOGA initiated partnering steps in 2010, and is forecasting completion for 2017.

  • During a ‘prequalification’ round, NOGA came up with an initial short list of potential EPC firms, then it enlarged the bid list to include a maximum number of responses (21). The bid turned out to be premature, but it did result in two ongoing ‘discussion partners’ (Shell and Vitol).
  • NOGA took several years to iron out governance issues. It had originally considered a joint venture with Independent Terminal Bahrain (ITB), Kuwait’s Independent Petroleum Group (IPG), and Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP). In the end, NOGA chose a consultant and engineers to do a pre-FEED and a FEED study. It also decided on issues of ownership between NOGAholding, NOGA, and BAPCO, which it engaged as a technical advisor.
  • It set priorities and interrelationships between related projects, assessing its domestic energy needs (e.g., ALBA), evaluating alternative energy sources and configurations (FLNG, solar, etc.), negotiating the terms of pipelined oil from Saudi Arabia, and tweaking the project’s timing to synchronize anticipated supply and demand.

The introduction and integration of a supply chain ‘master plan’ at the Feasibility Study/Basis of Design stage can shrink the project cycle, improve reliability of the timetable, decrease cost, and synchronize procurement commitments with forecast cash positions, all while meeting target levels of total cost and per-unit cost. A supply chain master plan for an LNG project has three components:

  • Assessment of the cost saving potential of alternative major equipment technologies and choices, such as gas turbines, GT drives, and heat exchanger designs, which on average saves 10-25% on these major items.
  • Determination of the minimal achievable project timeline within inter-related and complex supply chain lead time constraints, especially for major equipment such as compressors. This avoids subsequent project delays and cost overruns. As a proxy, Boston Strategies International sampled 20 major refinery projects between 2005 and 2014 found that 20% of them encountered delays that inflated their schedules by an average of 35% and their cost by an average of 23%. Equivalent factors applied to the roughly $600 million, 7-year terminal project in Bahrain would yield a potential avoidance of 29 months and $138 million.
  • Calibration of the timing of financial and legal/contractual commitment to long lead time equipment, which avoids cash crunches.

Supply chain master plans should be conducted by independent third parties other than the firm that may do or manage the construction. This ensures objectivity of the costs and lead times, which an EPC often has an incentive to misrepresent in order to increase its chances of winning the construction work. By providing a range of cost benchmarks for similar projects, it also dramatically improves the owner/operator’s negotiating position in the bid evaluation phase.

Boston Strategies International developed a supply chain master plan for a major European power producer that helped to save 13% on the baseline cost of a $45 billion project ($5.8 billion).

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